Beware of Polls

As the 2012 elections approach polls are frequently issued. Various media sources use them and report them as reflecting the truth regarding public opinion. Before you put faith into the reported polls and what the media tells you that they mean it is strongly suggested that you consider the following:

* The voting eligible population of the United States is 218 million people. (United States Elections Project; The U.S. Census).

* The typical number of those polled is 1,000 people.

* This sample represents 0.000005 of the voting population or 0.0005% of the voting population.

* Little to no information is offered on what specific questions were asked; in what context the questions were asked; who was asked; the demographics of those asked and political affiliation; how the questions were asked (by phone, in person, by E-mail, written form, etc.); where the questions were asked; and the timing of when the questions were asked vs. other events.

* Many of the polls issued are conducted by those who have a definite bias toward a desired outcome. Many of the frequently reported polls are in fact of this sort.

* Although the sample size used may be statistically correct (although extremely small vs. the population as shown above), polling people is MUCH more complex than sampling widgets off a production line, as an example. In fact it is extremely complex with people. Such things as the precise wording, voice inflections if in person, and a whole host of human factors enter in. For all the reasons given above I would venture to say that the sample size of polls that are used to measure public opinion on critical issues facing our nation are grossly inadequate and much too small.

In the book "The Opinion Makers, An Insider Exposes the Truth Behind the Polls" by David W. Moore, former Senior Editor of the Gallup Poll, the author points out many of the problems with polling, and how polls can be manipulated. In fact Mark Crispin Miller, Professor of Media Studies at New York University, was quoted in reference to the book as saying "A powerful argument that polls do not merely misinform us but pose a genuine, if subtle, threat to our democracy". If this is the case, and it is believed that it is, there should be questions asked on why we seemingly blindly report and believe polls, and why they are not more questions raised by objective media reporters.

Many polls that are issued are used to influence public opinion, not measure it. In the 2004 presidential election between George W. Bush and John Kerry a number of exit polls issued had Kerry significantly (and falsely) in the lead. These exit polls were issued by media sources that definitely favored Kerry. The exit poll results were issued prior to all polls in the United States being closed. This was clearly an attempt to influence the election. (All this was swept under the rug after the election.) A number of years back the Boston Globe issued a poll on same sex marriage. The Globe interviewed only 500 people and had a definite bias in favor of same sex marriage. Yet not only did no one question the poll (with all the issues given above) but the results spread like wild fire across the country with headlines reporting that the American people favored same sex marriage.

There is LITTLE question that as we approach 2012 that many polls will be used, not to measure public opinion, but to influence it. Beware.